Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on November 12?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$121.56
-$24.7
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 49%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $99 | -$0.9 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.8 | -$0.18 | 53% 5912-5294 (11206) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $6.18 | $0.68 | -$5.5 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $52.05 | $0.67 | -$5.45 | 26% 86-244 (330) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $20.5 | $0.61 | -$6.25 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.73 | $0.52 | -$4.21 | 49% 492-514 (1006) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.48 | $0.27 | -$2.21 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
Invested
$99.9
Value
$99
PnL
-$0.9
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.8
PnL
-$0.18
Record
53%
5912-5294 (11206)
Invested
$6.18
Value
$0.68
PnL
-$5.5
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
Invested
$52.05
Value
$0.67
PnL
-$5.45
Record
26%
86-244 (330)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$20.5
Value
$0.61
PnL
-$6.25
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$4.73
Value
$0.52
PnL
-$4.21
Record
49%
492-514 (1006)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$2.48
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$2.21
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.