Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $242 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$241.78
-$0.93
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $142.8 | $142.23 | -$0.57 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $79.6 | -$0.32 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $14.94 | $14.93 | -$0.01 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.04 | $5.02 | -$0.02 | 43% 334-446 (780) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$0.01 | 54% 445-377 (822) |
LucerysInvested
$142.8
Value
$142.23
PnL
-$0.57
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$79.92
Value
$79.6
PnL
-$0.32
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
Invested
$14.94
Value
$14.93
PnL
-$0.01
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$5.04
Value
$5.02
PnL
-$0.02
Record
43%
334-446 (780)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.01
Record
54%
445-377 (822)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.