Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $205 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$204.61
$0.13
99.5¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.7¢ | $142.45 | $142.37 | -$0.08 | 36% 3035-5349 (8384) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $39.77 | $39.83 | +$0.06 | 50% 4565-4478 (9043) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $14.92 | $14.93 | +$0.01 | 29% 2560-6176 (8736) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $4.85 | $4.98 | +$0.14 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 99% 146-1 (147) |
LucerysInvested
$142.45
Value
$142.37
PnL
-$0.08
Record
36%
3035-5349 (8384)
balthazar<$100Invested
$39.77
Value
$39.83
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
4565-4478 (9043)
Invested
$14.92
Value
$14.93
PnL
+$0.01
Record
29%
2560-6176 (8736)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.98
PnL
+$0.14
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
146-1 (147)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.