Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $152 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$151.7
-$5.92
97.6¢ → 96.9¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 98.6¢ | $120.08 | $113.87 | -$6.21 | 35% 2865-5318 (8183) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $13.8 | $14.03 | +$0.22 | 28% 2414-6144 (8558) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $12.38 | $12.16 | -$0.23 | 38% 1190-1979 (3169) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $9.91 | $10.16 | +$0.24 | 52% 231-215 (446) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $1.44 | $1.49 | +$0.05 | 21% 135-495 (630) |
LucerysInvested
$120.08
Value
$113.87
PnL
-$6.21
Record
35%
2865-5318 (8183)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$14.03
PnL
+$0.22
Record
28%
2414-6144 (8558)
Invested
$12.38
Value
$12.16
PnL
-$0.23
Record
38%
1190-1979 (3169)
Invested
$9.91
Value
$10.16
PnL
+$0.24
Record
52%
231-215 (446)
Invested
$1.44
Value
$1.49
PnL
+$0.05
Record
21%
135-495 (630)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.