Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 65¢ · $164 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$163.56
-$0.09
61.5¢ → 65¢
+6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $91.48 | $87.91 | -$3.57 | 35% 2865-5318 (8183) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 62.7¢ | $34.5 | $33.83 | -$0.67 | 21% 135-495 (630) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $22.4 | $24.6 | +$2.2 | 50% 4483-4431 (8914) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $7.8 | $9.23 | +$1.42 | 28% 2414-6144 (8558) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 57.4¢ | $7.46 | $8 | +$0.54 | 38% 1190-1979 (3169) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$91.48
Value
$87.91
PnL
-$3.57
Record
35%
2865-5318 (8183)
Invested
$34.5
Value
$33.83
PnL
-$0.67
Record
21%
135-495 (630)
balthazar<$100Invested
$22.4
Value
$24.6
PnL
+$2.2
Record
50%
4483-4431 (8914)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$9.23
PnL
+$1.42
Record
28%
2414-6144 (8558)
Invested
$7.46
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.54
Record
38%
1190-1979 (3169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.