Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 48¢ · $92 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$91.68
-$8.91
56.5¢ → 47.5¢
-16% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.1¢ | $29.31 | $31.36 | +$2.05 | 35% 2865-5318 (8183) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $36.73 | $25.31 | -$11.42 | 52% 231-215 (446) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $18.81 | $20.6 | +$1.79 | 50% 4483-4431 (8914) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $8.69 | $7.72 | -$0.97 | 28% 2414-6144 (8558) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 54.2¢ | $7.04 | $6.7 | -$0.34 | 38% 1190-1979 (3169) |
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$29.31
Value
$31.36
PnL
+$2.05
Record
35%
2865-5318 (8183)
Invested
$36.73
Value
$25.31
PnL
-$11.42
Record
52%
231-215 (446)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$18.81
Value
$20.6
PnL
+$1.79
Record
50%
4483-4431 (8914)
Invested
$8.69
Value
$7.72
PnL
-$0.97
Record
28%
2414-6144 (8558)
Invested
$7.04
Value
$6.7
PnL
-$0.34
Record
38%
1190-1979 (3169)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.