Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 93¢ · $98 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$98.35
-$8
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 92.9¢ | $38.05 | $36.87 | -$1.18 | 35% 2865-5318 (8183) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $23.54 | $19.16 | -$4.38 | 21% 135-495 (630) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $35.36 | $17.12 | -$0.86 | 52% 231-215 (446) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $14.61 | $13.5 | -$1.11 | 28% 2414-6144 (8558) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $12.17 | $11.7 | -$0.47 | 38% 1190-1979 (3169) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$38.05
Value
$36.87
PnL
-$1.18
Record
35%
2865-5318 (8183)
Invested
$23.54
Value
$19.16
PnL
-$4.38
Record
21%
135-495 (630)
Invested
$35.36
Value
$17.12
PnL
-$0.86
Record
52%
231-215 (446)
Invested
$14.61
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$1.11
Record
28%
2414-6144 (8558)
Invested
$12.17
Value
$11.7
PnL
-$0.47
Record
38%
1190-1979 (3169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.