Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on November 11?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $180 held · ends Nov 11
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$180.32
$0.4
99.2¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.2¢ | $141.85 | $142.08 | +$0.23 | 35% 2882-5322 (8204) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $14.94 | $14.91 | -$0.03 | 28% 2422-6146 (8568) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $13.34 | $13.38 | +$0.04 | 50% 4487-4433 (8920) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $9.78 | $9.95 | +$0.17 | 52% 244-227 (471) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.