Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 9°C on November 10?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $219 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$218.69
$0.13
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $99.95 | +$0.05 | 100% 93-0 (93) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $44.96 | $44.98 | +$0.02 | 32% 811-1697 (2508) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.99 | +$0.02 | 6% 18-276 (294) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $28.54 | $28.56 | +$0.01 | 37% 2788-4826 (7614) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $8.09 | $8.1 | +$0 | 31% 163-361 (524) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $7.1 | $7.13 | +$0.02 | 30% 2360-5638 (7998) |
Invested
$99.9
Value
$99.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
100%
93-0 (93)
Invested
$44.96
Value
$44.98
PnL
+$0.02
Record
32%
811-1697 (2508)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.99
PnL
+$0.02
Record
6%
18-276 (294)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$28.54
Value
$28.56
PnL
+$0.01
Record
37%
2788-4826 (7614)
Invested
$8.09
Value
$8.1
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
163-361 (524)
Invested
$7.1
Value
$7.13
PnL
+$0.02
Record
30%
2360-5638 (7998)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.