Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on November 10?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $328 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$327.79

Combined PnL

$0.56

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$327.79

Total Shares328

Combined PnL+$0.56

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$64.8	$64.95	+$0.16	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$44.87	$44.96	+$0.09	5% 18-315 (333)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$41.35	$41.44	+$0.09	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$37.38	$37.4	+$0.02	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.89	$29.97	+$0.08	10% 25-236 (261)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$22.94	$23	+$0.05	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$22.87	$22.89	+$0.02	36% 462-806 (1268)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$18.61	$18.65	+$0.03	31% 163-361 (524)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$16.91	$16.91	+$0	80% 140-34 (174)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.33	$10.34	+$0.01	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$10.21	$10.23	+$0.02	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7.05	$7.05	-$0	35% 138-259 (397)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$64.8

Value

$64.95

PnL

+$0.16

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$44.87

Value

$44.96

PnL

+$0.09

Record

18-315 (333)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$41.35

Value

$41.44

PnL

+$0.09

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$37.38

Value

$37.4

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.89

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.08

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$22.94

Value

$23

PnL

+$0.05

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$22.87

Value

$22.89

PnL

+$0.02

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$18.61

Value

$18.65

PnL

+$0.03

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$16.91

Value

$16.91

PnL

+$0

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$10.33

Value

$10.34

PnL

+$0.01

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.21

Value

$10.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$0

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 34%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 34% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.