Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on November 10?

16 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $750 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$749.77

Combined PnL

$10.08

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 99.6¢

+1% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 16 top traders (100%)14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$749.77

Total Shares750

Combined PnL+$10.08

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$333.14	$333.17	+$0.03	100% 93-0 (93)
24 241532532432	Noavg 94.2¢	$115.86	$122.88	+$7.02	21% 132-485 (617)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$64.11	$64.91	+$0.8	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$44.37	$44.96	+$0.59	10% 25-236 (261)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$41	$41.44	+$0.44	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$37.17	$37.4	+$0.23	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$29.58	$29.97	+$0.39	5% 18-315 (333)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.67	$19.73	+$0.06	30% 174-414 (588)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$16.88	$16.91	+$0.03	80% 140-34 (174)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$24.68	$9.77	+$0.37	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$9.63	$9.64	+$0	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.18	$5.18	+$0.01	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5.14	$5.16	+$0.02	35% 138-259 (397)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$4.93	$5	+$0.07	4% 17-463 (480)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$1.96	$1.97	+$0.01	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$1.67	$1.69	+$0.02	36% 462-806 (1268)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$333.14

Value

$333.17

PnL

+$0.03

Record

100%

93-0 (93)

241532532432

Invested

$115.86

Value

$122.88

PnL

+$7.02

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$64.11

Value

$64.91

PnL

+$0.8

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$44.37

Value

$44.96

PnL

+$0.59

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$41

Value

$41.44

PnL

+$0.44

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$37.17

Value

$37.4

PnL

+$0.23

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$29.58

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.39

Record

18-315 (333)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$19.67

Value

$19.73

PnL

+$0.06

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$16.88

Value

$16.91

PnL

+$0.03

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$24.68

Value

$9.77

PnL

+$0.37

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$9.63

Value

$9.64

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.18

PnL

+$0.01

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.14

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$0.02

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.93

Value

PnL

+$0.07

Record

17-463 (480)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.96

Value

$1.97

PnL

+$0.01

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$1.67

Value

$1.69

PnL

+$0.02

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 16 top traders (100%)14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.