Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on November 10?

14 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 80¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$139.81

Smart Money Entry

66.2¢ → 79.5¢

+20% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$984.69

Total Shares1,144

Combined PnL+$156.17

Yes2 traders

Total Value$24.22

Total Shares135

Combined PnL-$16.37

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 63.1¢	$490.16	$618.22	+$128.06	21% 132-485 (617)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 70.4¢	$97.75	$93.95	-$3.8	89% 409-53 (462)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 57.1¢	$27.9	$38.29	+$10.4	34% 150-294 (444)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 74¢	$33.3	$37.35	+$4.05	4% 15-322 (337)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$27.42	$31.08	+$3.65	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 68.4¢	$24.96	$30.28	+$5.32	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$28.86	$27.78	-$1.08	28% 153-400 (553)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 74¢	$22.2	$24.9	+$2.7	11% 28-230 (258)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$38.93	$21.26	-$17.67	2% 12-662 (674)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$19.87	$20.74	+$0.87	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 82¢	$17.92	$18.14	+$0.22	30% 174-414 (588)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$14.46	$16.09	+$1.62	36% 462-806 (1268)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 64.9¢	$11.49	$14.69	+$3.2	80% 140-34 (174)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 74.8¢	$8.45	$9.04	+$0.59	31% 163-361 (524)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$3.78	$4.15	+$0.37	4% 17-463 (480)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$17.62	$2.96	+$1.3	51% 197-186 (383)

241532532432

Invested

$490.16

Value

$618.22

PnL

+$128.06

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$97.75

Value

$93.95

PnL

-$3.8

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$27.9

Value

$38.29

PnL

+$10.4

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$33.3

Value

$37.35

PnL

+$4.05

Record

15-322 (337)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$27.42

Value

$31.08

PnL

+$3.65

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$24.96

Value

$30.28

PnL

+$5.32

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$28.86

Value

$27.78

PnL

-$1.08

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$22.2

Value

$24.9

PnL

+$2.7

Record

11%

28-230 (258)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.93

Value

$21.26

PnL

-$17.67

Record

12-662 (674)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.87

Value

$20.74

PnL

+$0.87

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$17.92

Value

$18.14

PnL

+$0.22

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$14.46

Value

$16.09

PnL

+$1.62

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$11.49

Value

$14.69

PnL

+$3.2

Record

80%

140-34 (174)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$8.45

Value

$9.04

PnL

+$0.59

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.78

Value

$4.15

PnL

+$0.37

Record

17-463 (480)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.62

Value

$2.96

PnL

+$1.3

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 16 top traders (88%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.