Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on November 10?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 100¢ · $300 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$299.63

Combined PnL

$39.6

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$240.15

Total Shares237

Combined PnL+$44.09

Yes2 traders

Total Value$59.48

Total Shares564

Combined PnL-$4.49

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$56.39	$74.93	+$18.54	5% 18-315 (333)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 75.6¢	$49.17	$64.94	+$15.77	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.7¢	$64.57	$58.33	-$6.23	21% 132-485 (617)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$23.01	$28.55	+$5.54	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$25.64	$27.88	+$2.24	89% 409-53 (462)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.2¢	$61.25	$18.22	-$2.05	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 76.6¢	$6.2	$8.09	+$1.89	28% 153-400 (553)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$7.05	$7.12	+$0.07	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.57	$5.43	+$0.86	35% 138-259 (397)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$3.76	$5	+$1.24	4% 17-463 (480)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$1.68	$1.15	+$1.75	67% 3785-1901 (5686)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$56.39

Value

$74.93

PnL

+$18.54

Record

18-315 (333)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$49.17

Value

$64.94

PnL

+$15.77

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.57

Value

$58.33

PnL

-$6.23

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$23.01

Value

$28.55

PnL

+$5.54

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$25.64

Value

$27.88

PnL

+$2.24

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$61.25

Value

$18.22

PnL

-$2.05

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.2

Value

$8.09

PnL

+$1.89

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.12

PnL

+$0.07

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$0.86

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

PnL

+$1.24

Record

17-463 (480)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$1.75

Record

67%

3785-1901 (5686)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.