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Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesNoYes
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$6.8
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares262
Combined PnL-$6.8
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 67%No — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $7.44 | — | -$6.8 | 59% 1779-1231 (3010) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21044-13396 (34440) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6516-5727 (12243) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4419-9499 (13918) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 20% 308-1212 (1520) |
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
$7.44
Value
—
PnL
-$6.8
Record
59%
1779-1231 (3010)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21044-13396 (34440)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6516-5727 (12243)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4419-9499 (13918)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
308-1212 (1520)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x08624d64...fe7b6c
Slug
highest-temperature-in-tel-aviv-on-october-30-2026-27c