Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 30?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $465 held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$465.32
-$167.56
39.6¢ → 6.5¢
-84% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 37.3¢ | $377.06 | $222.47 | -$154.59 | 51% 626-610 (1236) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 44.6¢ | $185.06 | $146.54 | -$38.52 | 59% 1738-1204 (2942) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $48.8 | $58.62 | +$9.82 | 56% 368-292 (660) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 56.4¢ | $14.35 | $16.18 | +$2.04 | 21% 300-1130 (1430) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 64.8¢ | $22.43 | $12.45 | +$2.87 | 57% 13591-10418 (24009) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 63.9¢ | $114.07 | $9.05 | +$10.82 | 53% 6477-5678 (12155) |
Invested
$377.06
Value
$222.47
PnL
-$154.59
Record
51%
626-610 (1236)
Invested
$185.06
Value
$146.54
PnL
-$38.52
Record
59%
1738-1204 (2942)
Invested
$48.8
Value
$58.62
PnL
+$9.82
Record
56%
368-292 (660)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$14.35
Value
$16.18
PnL
+$2.04
Record
21%
300-1130 (1430)
Invested
$22.43
Value
$12.45
PnL
+$2.87
Record
57%
13591-10418 (24009)
Invested
$114.07
Value
$9.05
PnL
+$10.82
Record
53%
6477-5678 (12155)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.