Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on October 30?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 52¢ · $434 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
1 arb excluded
$434.25
$2.1
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 47.3¢ | $156.6 | $157.21 | +$0.61 | 51% 600-573 (1173) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 51.7¢ | $149.25 | $145.01 | -$2.12 | 24% 285-894 (1179) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 51.7¢ | $75.01 | $75.41 | +$0.33 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.7¢ | $72.13 | $69.6 | -$2.45 | |
HE hello.67CTR | Noavg 52.5¢ | $110.1 | $110.15 | +$0.05 | 50% 1689-1672 (3361) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 50.4¢ | $10.94 | $11.39 | +$0.45 | 57% 13257-10098 (23355) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.5¢ | $9.51 | $10.5 | +$0.99 | 61% 20767-13185 (33952) |
Invested
$156.6
Value
$157.21
PnL
+$0.61
Record
51%
600-573 (1173)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$149.25
Value
$145.01
PnL
-$2.12
Record
24%
285-894 (1179)
Both legs:
Invested
$110.1
Value
$110.15
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
1689-1672 (3361)
Invested
$10.94
Value
$11.39
PnL
+$0.45
Record
57%
13257-10098 (23355)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$9.51
Value
$10.5
PnL
+$0.99
Record
61%
20767-13185 (33952)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.