Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (59%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 28?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 42¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
3 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$238.14
Research grade
NeutralNo at 42%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR | Noavg 44.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.2K | -$244.19 | 50% 1640-1625 (3265) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100 | Yesavg 54.4¢ | $590.07 | $636.62 | +$46.55 | 51% 577-548 (1125) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.4¢ | $348.21 | $390.64 | +$57.69 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.8¢ | $257.12 | $245.98 | -$11.14 | |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 57.7¢ | $539.33 | $518.09 | -$6.46 | 29% 280-697 (977) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 57.7¢ | $299.14 | $316.04 | +$17.06 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43.3¢ | $224.22 | $202.06 | -$23.52 | |
24 241532532432 | Yesavg 55.1¢ | $98.71 | $104.77 | +$6.06 | 61% 1566-1014 (2580) |
TY TyshaARB<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $59.99 | $59.99 | -$1.2 | 73% 8237-3091 (11328) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 59¢ | $35.39 | $36.59 | +$1.2 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41¢ | $24.6 | $23.4 | -$2.4 |
Invested
$1,399.46
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$244.19
Record
50%
1640-1625 (3265)
Invested
$590.07
Value
$636.62
PnL
+$46.55
Record
51%
577-548 (1125)
Both legs:
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$539.33
Value
$518.09
PnL
-$6.46
Record
29%
280-697 (977)
Both legs:
Invested
$98.71
Value
$104.77
PnL
+$6.06
Record
61%
1566-1014 (2580)
Invested
$59.99
Value
$59.99
PnL
-$1.2
Record
73%
8237-3091 (11328)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.