Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 27?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 5.4¢ · $125 held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$125.13
-$25.87
80.6¢ → 5.4¢
-93% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $58.45 | $54.89 | -$3.56 | 61% 20494-12853 (33347) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 95.1¢ | $45.9 | $46.43 | +$0.53 | 61% 1522-962 (2484) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $20.35 | $20 | -$0.35 | 33% 273-556 (829) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.8¢ | $46.57 | $3.47 | -$18.36 | 57% 12899-9813 (22712) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 86.6¢ | $4.48 | $0.34 | -$4.14 | 53% 6226-5465 (11691) |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$58.45
Value
$54.89
PnL
-$3.56
Record
61%
20494-12853 (33347)
Invested
$45.9
Value
$46.43
PnL
+$0.53
Record
61%
1522-962 (2484)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$20.35
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.35
Record
33%
273-556 (829)
Invested
$46.57
Value
$3.47
PnL
-$18.36
Record
57%
12899-9813 (22712)
Invested
$4.48
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$4.14
Record
53%
6226-5465 (11691)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.