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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on November 7?

Resolved Yes. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

No 67%

Total Value

$72.38

Combined PnL

-$38.07

Smart Money Signal

No

10 of 12 top traders (83%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$72.38

Total Shares72

Combined PnL+$66.91

No10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares155

Combined PnL-$104.98

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$4.88	$70.66	+$65.78	39% 900-1436 (2336)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	No	—	—	-$68.24	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$12.04	—	-$23.45	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	$11.17	—	-$11.17	54% 10777-9308 (20085)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 19.3¢	$2.12	—	-$2.12	24% 8014-25858 (33872)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$0.58	$1.72	+$1.14	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 64.6¢	—	—	+$0	45% 18006-22281 (40287)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	No	—	—	+$0	60% 18915-12738 (31653)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 65.2¢	—	—	+$0	46% 3898-4513 (8411)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	—	—	+$0	35% 1022-1939 (2961)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 61¢	—	—	+$0	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
IstarothCTR<$100	No	—	—	+$0	13% 603-4221 (4824)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$70.66

PnL

+$65.78

Record

39%

900-1436 (2336)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

-$68.24

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$12.04

Value

—

PnL

-$23.45

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$11.17

Value

—

PnL

-$11.17

Record

54%

10777-9308 (20085)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$2.12

Value

—

PnL

-$2.12

Record

24%

8014-25858 (33872)

Invested

$0.58

Value

$1.72

PnL

+$1.14

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

18006-22281 (40287)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

18915-12738 (31653)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

3898-4513 (8411)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

1022-1939 (2961)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

13%

603-4221 (4824)

Smart Money Signal

No

10 of 12 top traders (83%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x994f156f...5a710f

Slug

highest-temperature-in-tel-aviv-on-november-7-2026-21c

Traders in this Market

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes — $70.66

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

No — $0

cigarettes

No — $0

Poligarch

No — $0

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

No — $0

ghorrock

Yes — $1.72

Lucerys

No — $0

graynotebook19

No — $0

haveagoodday

No — $0

anothercoin

No — $0

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