Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on November 7?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $117 held · ended Nov 7
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Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$116.9
-$18.99
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702 | No | $105.87 | $105.87 | -$14.95 | 39% 1311-2070 (3381) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $9.57 | $10 | -$2.03 | 97% 522-14 (536) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | $3.69 | $1.04 | -$2.01 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.