Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on November 5?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $144 held · ended Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$143.87

Combined PnL

$101.7

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$62.5

Total Shares391

Combined PnL+$84.89

No3 traders

Total Value$80.5

Total Shares78

Combined PnL+$16.82

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 30.1¢	$644.71	$38.97	-$56.77	39% 835-1312 (2147)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 73¢	$89.4	$30.37	+$1.08	53% 10364-9021 (19385)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 66¢	$16.69	$25.24	+$8.55	53% 23272-20444 (43716)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$44.64	$24.88	+$7.18	58% 21129-15368 (36497)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$3.35	$12.49	+$143.6	39% 1117-1761 (2878)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$12.9	$9.6	-$3.3	53% 3958-3514 (7472)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.09	$1.44	+$1.35	26% 7286-21048 (28334)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$644.71

Value

$38.97

PnL

-$56.77

Record

39%

835-1312 (2147)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$89.4

Value

$30.37

PnL

+$1.08

Record

53%

10364-9021 (19385)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.69

Value

$25.24

PnL

+$8.55

Record

53%

23272-20444 (43716)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$44.64

Value

$24.88

PnL

+$7.18

Record

58%

21129-15368 (36497)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.35

Value

$12.49

PnL

+$143.6

Record

39%

1117-1761 (2878)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.9

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$3.3

Record

53%

3958-3514 (7472)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$1.35

Record

26%

7286-21048 (28334)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-28 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.