Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on November 4?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 65¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$436.23

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 65¢

+39% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,119

Combined PnL+$435.23

Yes2 traders

Total Value$5.25

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$1

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 56.7¢	$666.32	$628.53	+$74.07	16% 427-2305 (2732)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 24.3¢	$116.99	$254.4	+$219.03	47% 8058-9236 (17294)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Yesavg 36.7¢	$390.06	$251.45	+$8.94	44% 754-963 (1717)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.7¢	$200.2	$191	+$10.44
└ No leg	Noavg 56.4¢	$52.48	$60.45	-$1.51
24 241532532432	Noavg 62.7¢	$188.06	$195	+$8.95	58% 2445-1789 (4234)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 1.9¢	$3.53	$116.67	+$118.57	39% 974-1548 (2522)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 52.9¢	$75.28	$92.56	+$17.28	79% 11953-3142 (15095)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 56.4¢	$46.41	$52.92	+$6.51	53% 9606-8430 (18036)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 64¢	$19.21	$19.5	+$0.29	46% 10071-11765 (21836)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 63.3¢	$30.94	$19.35	-$1.95	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 73¢	$54.75	$14.81	-$8.43	53% 7951-7061 (15012)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 20.8¢	$12.1	$13	+$0.9	53% 28631-25561 (54192)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$2.9	$3.5	+$0.6	53% 3647-3270 (6917)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$1.35	$1.75	+$0.4	39% 5309-8313 (13622)

Istaroth

Invested

$666.32

Value

$628.53

PnL

+$74.07

Record

16%

427-2305 (2732)

mildwindow27

Invested

$116.99

Value

$254.4

PnL

+$219.03

Record

47%

8058-9236 (17294)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$390.06

Value

$251.45

PnL

+$8.94

Record

44%

754-963 (1717)

Both legs:

Yes$200.236.7¢+$10.44

No$52.4856.4¢-$1.51

241532532432

Invested

$188.06

Value

$195

PnL

+$8.95

Record

58%

2445-1789 (4234)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$3.53

Value

$116.67

PnL

+$118.57

Record

39%

974-1548 (2522)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$75.28

Value

$92.56

PnL

+$17.28

Record

79%

11953-3142 (15095)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$46.41

Value

$52.92

PnL

+$6.51

Record

53%

9606-8430 (18036)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$19.21

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$0.29

Record

46%

10071-11765 (21836)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$30.94

Value

$19.35

PnL

-$1.95

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$54.75

Value

$14.81

PnL

-$8.43

Record

53%

7951-7061 (15012)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$12.1

Value

$13

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

28631-25561 (54192)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.6

Record

53%

3647-3270 (6917)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.4

Record

39%

5309-8313 (13622)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.