Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on November 3?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 88¢ · $125 held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$125.33
$10.88
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.4¢ | $48.17 | $61.23 | +$13.06 | 53% 3388-3006 (6394) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.9¢ | $64.27 | $53.4 | -$2.14 | 57% 17234-12896 (30130) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $5.4 | $5.4 | +$0 | 53% 7524-6651 (14175) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 88.9¢ | $4.46 | $4.42 | -$0.04 | 54% 7707-6456 (14163) |
Invested
$48.17
Value
$61.23
PnL
+$13.06
Record
53%
3388-3006 (6394)
Invested
$64.27
Value
$53.4
PnL
-$2.14
Record
57%
17234-12896 (30130)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
7524-6651 (14175)
Invested
$4.46
Value
$4.42
PnL
-$0.04
Record
54%
7707-6456 (14163)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.