Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on November 2?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 1.3¢ · $7 held · ended Nov 2

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$6.87

Combined PnL

-$1.98

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$4.97

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.01

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.9

Total Shares114

Combined PnL-$1.97

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$4.98	$4.97	-$0.01	44% 4031-5224 (9255)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$12.95	$0.98	-$0.56	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.21	$0.29	+$0.08	42% 1898-2621 (4519)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$0.54	$0.16	-$0.38	37% 685-1150 (1835)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.52	$0.15	-$0.37	37% 758-1274 (2032)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$0.66	$0.13	-$0.54	41% 943-1365 (2308)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.23	$0.11	-$0.11	35% 558-1046 (1604)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.17	$0.09	-$0.09	35% 710-1327 (2037)

aHjCz<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.01

Record

44%

4031-5224 (9255)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.95

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.56

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.08

Record

42%

1898-2621 (4519)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.38

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.37

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.54

Record

41%

943-1365 (2308)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.11

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.09

Record

35%

710-1327 (2037)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.4%

1.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4137.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

4237.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.