Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on November 2?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $146 held · ends Nov 2

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$146.48

Combined PnL

-$19.84

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 88.7¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$137.15

Total Shares137

Combined PnL-$0.9

Yes6 traders

Total Value$9.33

Total Shares447

Combined PnL-$18.93

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$70.42	$54.97	+$1.51	57% 17234-12896 (30130)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 90.8¢	$34.67	$36.76	+$2.09	54% 7707-6456 (14163)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$15.35	$15.31	-$0.04	35% 558-1046 (1604)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$17.22	$12.76	-$4.46	35% 704-1298 (2002)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$12.46	$12.24	-$0.22	41% 941-1363 (2304)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$16.2	$7.16	-$12.79	60% 2346-1533 (3879)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 94.6¢	$4.89	$5.11	+$0.22	37% 683-1149 (1832)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$18.99	$1.45	-$1.44	53% 7524-6651 (14175)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.1¢	$3.16	$0.39	-$2.77	37% 758-1271 (2029)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.52	$0.16	-$0.36	56% 3736-2985 (6721)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$0.9	$0.09	-$0.81	46% 1568-1828 (3396)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$0.83	$0.07	-$0.76	42% 1897-2620 (4517)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$70.42

Value

$54.97

PnL

+$1.51

Record

57%

17234-12896 (30130)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$34.67

Value

$36.76

PnL

+$2.09

Record

54%

7707-6456 (14163)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.35

Value

$15.31

PnL

-$0.04

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$17.22

Value

$12.76

PnL

-$4.46

Record

35%

704-1298 (2002)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$12.46

Value

$12.24

PnL

-$0.22

Record

41%

941-1363 (2304)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.2

Value

$7.16

PnL

-$12.79

Record

60%

2346-1533 (3879)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.22

Record

37%

683-1149 (1832)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.99

Value

$1.45

PnL

-$1.44

Record

53%

7524-6651 (14175)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.16

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$2.77

Record

37%

758-1271 (2029)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.36

Record

56%

3736-2985 (6721)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.81

Record

46%

1568-1828 (3396)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.83

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.76

Record

42%

1897-2620 (4517)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.2%

88.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.