Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on November 2?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 65¢ · $933 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$933.04
-$23.04
76.5¢ → 65¢
-15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
17h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $440.61 | $482.54 | +$66.08 | 47% 698-782 (1480) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71¢ | $263.98 | $282.44 | +$42.62 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21.2¢ | $176.63 | $200.1 | +$23.47 | |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 77.8¢ | $199.07 | $209.83 | +$10.76 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 73.2¢ | $112.81 | $106.45 | -$3.77 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.7¢ | $72.38 | $69.28 | -$3.1 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $79.78 | $53.13 | -$26.65 | 62% 1447-905 (2352) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77.2¢ | $31.84 | $11.69 | -$0.28 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$440.61
Value
$482.54
PnL
+$66.08
Record
47%
698-782 (1480)
Both legs:
Invested
$199.07
Value
$209.83
PnL
+$10.76
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
IstarothInvested
$112.81
Value
$106.45
PnL
-$3.77
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
Invested
$72.38
Value
$69.28
PnL
-$3.1
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$79.78
Value
$53.13
PnL
-$26.65
Record
62%
1447-905 (2352)
Invested
$31.84
Value
$11.69
PnL
-$0.28
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.