Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on November 2?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $551 held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$550.99

Combined PnL

$28.31

Smart Money Entry

35.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$381.89

Total Shares962

Combined PnL+$34.45

No3 traders

Total Value$47.9

Total Shares51

Combined PnL-$6.14

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+68 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 34.7¢	$289.12	$308.33	+$19.21	47% 746-836 (1582)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$59.92	$63.65	+$4.25	17% 399-1961 (2360)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52¢	$30.66	$33.59	+$2.89
└ No leg	Noavg 48.6¢	$28.66	$30.06	+$1.36
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 48.1¢	$49.21	$57.54	+$8.33	54% 7707-6456 (14163)
└ No leg	Noavg 48.1¢	$34.02	$36.1	+$2.08
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.7¢	$15.2	$21.45	+$6.25
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$33.04	$42.8	+$1.13	58% 1615-1157 (2772)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$35.91	$24.07	-$11.84	35% 704-1298 (2002)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 39.7¢	$6.07	$13.26	+$7.19	41% 941-1363 (2304)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 40.4¢	$8.38	$11.07	+$2.69	56% 3736-2985 (6721)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 76¢	$15.47	$10.56	-$1.49	57% 17234-12896 (30130)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.2¢	$4.09	$8.48	+$4.4	37% 683-1149 (1832)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$67.35	$6.28	+$6.23	53% 7524-6651 (14175)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.1¢	$4.13	$4.93	+$0.8	35% 558-1046 (1604)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$289.12

Value

$308.33

PnL

+$19.21

Record

47%

746-836 (1582)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.92

Value

$63.65

PnL

+$4.25

Record

17%

399-1961 (2360)

Both legs:

Yes$30.6652¢+$2.89

No$28.6648.6¢+$1.36

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$49.21

Value

$57.54

PnL

+$8.33

Record

54%

7707-6456 (14163)

Both legs:

No$34.0248.1¢+$2.08

Yes$15.234.7¢+$6.25

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.04

Value

$42.8

PnL

+$1.13

Record

58%

1615-1157 (2772)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$35.91

Value

$24.07

PnL

-$11.84

Record

35%

704-1298 (2002)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$6.07

Value

$13.26

PnL

+$7.19

Record

41%

941-1363 (2304)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.38

Value

$11.07

PnL

+$2.69

Record

56%

3736-2985 (6721)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.47

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$1.49

Record

57%

17234-12896 (30130)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.09

Value

$8.48

PnL

+$4.4

Record

37%

683-1149 (1832)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.35

Value

$6.28

PnL

+$6.23

Record

53%

7524-6651 (14175)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.13

Value

$4.93

PnL

+$0.8

Record

35%

558-1046 (1604)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+68 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.