Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on November 2?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 65¢ · $679 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
1 arb excluded
$679.22
$38.48
81.3¢ → 65¢
-20% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 83.1¢ | $358.39 | $378.42 | +$20.02 | 58% 1980-1418 (3398) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 78¢ | $129.62 | $147.57 | +$17.95 | 55% 514-423 (937) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $107.91 | $106.11 | -$1.45 | 18% 381-1779 (2160) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75¢ | $79.55 | $64.73 | -$14.83 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.4¢ | $27.97 | $41.38 | +$13.38 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76.8¢ | $45.21 | $25.34 | -$6.58 | 56% 14530-11397 (25927) |
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $10.82 | $18.15 | +$7.33 | 54% 1146-975 (2121) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $2.59 | $2.4 | -$0.19 | 82% 2408-531 (2939) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $0.8 | $0.74 | -$0.06 | 49% 379-389 (768) |
Invested
$358.39
Value
$378.42
PnL
+$20.02
Record
58%
1980-1418 (3398)
Invested
$129.62
Value
$147.57
PnL
+$17.95
Record
55%
514-423 (937)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$107.91
Value
$106.11
PnL
-$1.45
Record
18%
381-1779 (2160)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.21
Value
$25.34
PnL
-$6.58
Record
56%
14530-11397 (25927)
Invested
$10.82
Value
$18.15
PnL
+$7.33
Record
54%
1146-975 (2121)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$2.59
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.19
Record
82%
2408-531 (2939)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.74
PnL
-$0.06
Record
49%
379-389 (768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.