Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on November 16?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 87¢ · $790 held · ends Nov 16

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$790.09

Combined PnL

$41.83

Smart Money Entry

77.5¢ → 86.6¢

+12% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$788.96

Total Shares962

Combined PnL+$37.9

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.12

Total Shares6

Combined PnL+$3.93

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 75.5¢	$334.79	$360.26	+$25.47	54% 1125-972 (2097)
HE hello.67	Noavg 78.3¢	$235.59	$244.3	+$8.7	53% 2343-2099 (4442)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 83¢	$74.7	$73.08	-$1.62	33% 81-164 (245)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 78.2¢	$40.95	$44.23	+$3.29	30% 1165-2723 (3888)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$28.35	$28.7	+$0.35	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75¢	$17.68	$13.19	+$1.03	53% 2282-2055 (4337)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 81.2¢	$9.74	$9.84	+$0.11	35% 325-598 (923)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$8.13	$8.45	+$0.31	37% 305-523 (828)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$6.66	$6.92	+$0.26	47% 1230-1384 (2614)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.68	$1.12	+$3.93	35% 3888-7213 (11101)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$334.79

Value

$360.26

PnL

+$25.47

Record

54%

1125-972 (2097)

hello.67

Invested

$235.59

Value

$244.3

PnL

+$8.7

Record

53%

2343-2099 (4442)

123987456<$100

Invested

$74.7

Value

$73.08

PnL

-$1.62

Record

33%

81-164 (245)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$40.95

Value

$44.23

PnL

+$3.29

Record

30%

1165-2723 (3888)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.35

Value

$28.7

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.68

Value

$13.19

PnL

+$1.03

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$9.74

Value

$9.84

PnL

+$0.11

Record

35%

325-598 (923)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$8.13

Value

$8.45

PnL

+$0.31

Record

37%

305-523 (828)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.66

Value

$6.92

PnL

+$0.26

Record

47%

1230-1384 (2614)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.68

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$3.93

Record

35%

3888-7213 (11101)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.1%

86.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.