Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on November 16?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 74¢ · $217 held · ends Nov 16

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$217.31

Combined PnL

-$6.59

Smart Money Entry

81.8¢ → 73.5¢

-10% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$171.58

Total Shares218

Combined PnL-$4.03

Yes1 trader

Total Value$45.72

Total Shares286

Combined PnL-$2.56

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 83¢	$99.59	$50.75	-$1.87	29% 293-715 (1008)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.9¢	$48.28	$45.72	-$2.56	54% 1125-972 (2097)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 84¢	$33.6	$31.8	-$1.8	28% 1095-2777 (3872)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$29.29	$28.71	-$0.58	71% 939-382 (1321)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 81¢	$28.8	$28.62	-$0.18	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 79.4¢	$27.31	$16.67	+$0.32	38% 319-511 (830)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 79¢	$6.47	$6.1	-$0.37	60% 866-583 (1449)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 79¢	$4.76	$4.49	-$0.27	49% 844-877 (1721)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 80¢	$12.4	$4.43	+$0.72	28% 3288-8374 (11662)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$99.59

Value

$50.75

PnL

-$1.87

Record

29%

293-715 (1008)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.28

Value

$45.72

PnL

-$2.56

Record

54%

1125-972 (2097)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$33.6

Value

$31.8

PnL

-$1.8

Record

28%

1095-2777 (3872)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$29.29

Value

$28.71

PnL

-$0.58

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$28.8

Value

$28.62

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$27.31

Value

$16.67

PnL

+$0.32

Record

38%

319-511 (830)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$6.47

Value

$6.1

PnL

-$0.37

Record

60%

866-583 (1449)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$0.27

Record

49%

844-877 (1721)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$12.4

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$0.72

Record

28%

3288-8374 (11662)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.