Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on November 16?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 98¢ · $163 held · ends Nov 16

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$162.56

Combined PnL

-$0.14

Smart Money Entry

98.7¢ → 97.7¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$161.85

Total Shares164

Combined PnL-$0.08

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.71

Total Shares33

Combined PnL-$0.06

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$63.55	$63.47	-$0.08	38% 317-524 (841)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$54.76	$54.78	+$0.02	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$9.86	$9.86	+$0	28% 1103-2780 (3883)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$9.87	$9.86	-$0.01	33% 83-166 (249)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$9.87	$9.86	-$0.01	99% 1609-24 (1633)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$8.08	$8.08	-$0	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$5.95	$5.95	+$0	49% 854-884 (1738)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.58	$0.42	-$0.16	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.19	$0.29	+$0.1	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$63.55

Value

$63.47

PnL

-$0.08

Record

38%

317-524 (841)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$54.76

Value

$54.78

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$9.86

Value

$9.86

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

1103-2780 (3883)

123987456<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

$9.86

PnL

-$0.01

Record

33%

83-166 (249)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$9.87

Value

$9.86

PnL

-$0.01

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$8.08

Value

$8.08

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.95

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.58

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$0.16

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.