Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on November 16?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$121.74

Combined PnL

-$6.17

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$121.43

Total Shares122

Combined PnL-$0.94

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.3

Total Shares61

Combined PnL-$5.24

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$39.92	$39.92	+$0	35% 325-598 (923)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.96	+$0	99% 1580-23 (1603)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$19.96	$19.96	+$0	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$11.97	$11.97	+$0	28% 1095-2777 (3872)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.97	-$0.02	30% 1165-2723 (3888)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$8.18	$8.16	-$0.02	58% 859-610 (1469)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$6.02	$6.01	-$0.01	50% 912-916 (1828)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$15.47	$5.49	-$0.89	28% 3288-8374 (11662)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.54	$0.3	-$5.24	26% 600-1738 (2338)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$39.92

Value

$39.92

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

325-598 (923)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1580-23 (1603)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.96

Value

$19.96

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$11.97

Value

$11.97

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

1095-2777 (3872)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.97

PnL

-$0.02

Record

30%

1165-2723 (3888)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$8.18

Value

$8.16

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

859-610 (1469)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.02

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

912-916 (1828)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$15.47

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$0.89

Record

28%

3288-8374 (11662)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.54

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$5.24

Record

26%

600-1738 (2338)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.