Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on November 15?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $90 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$89.58

Combined PnL

$3.6

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$81

Total Shares81

Combined PnL+$2.87

Yes6 traders

Total Value$8.57

Total Shares73

Combined PnL+$0.72

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$28.13	$28.95	+$0.83	47% 887-1007 (1894)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$16.8	$17.43	+$0.63	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$13.19	$13.21	+$0.02	52% 909-844 (1753)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$9.52	$10.2	+$0.68	50% 919-925 (1844)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$7.99	$8.53	+$0.55	71% 950-388 (1338)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.5¢	$3.61	$4.04	+$0.43	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$2.5	$2.68	+$0.18	99% 1609-24 (1633)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.92	$1.77	-$0.06	24% 788-2560 (3348)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.4¢	$0.94	$1.18	+$0.24	41% 276-405 (681)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$0.61	$0.61	+$0	49% 854-884 (1738)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.7¢	$0.49	$0.49	+$0	51% 945-892 (1837)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.36	$0.47	+$0.11	60% 874-593 (1467)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$28.13

Value

$28.95

PnL

+$0.83

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$17.43

PnL

+$0.63

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$13.19

Value

$13.21

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$9.52

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0.68

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$7.99

Value

$8.53

PnL

+$0.55

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.61

Value

$4.04

PnL

+$0.43

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$0.18

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.92

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$0.06

Record

24%

788-2560 (3348)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.94

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.24

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.61

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.49

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.47

PnL

+$0.11

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.