Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on November 15?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 14¢ · $373 held · ends Nov 15

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$373.42

Combined PnL

-$120.11

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 14¢

-78% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$325.94

Total Shares716

Combined PnL-$122.16

Yes3 traders

Total Value$47.49

Total Shares58

Combined PnL+$2.05

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Noavg 63.8¢	$261.12	$186.36	-$74.76	54% 1125-972 (2097)
HE hello.67CTR	Noavg 64.2¢	$105.33	$74.71	-$30.63	53% 2343-2099 (4442)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$50.67	$34.7	-$11.26	14% 101-606 (707)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 86.6¢	$30.18	$31.29	+$1.11	53% 7447-6561 (14008)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$74.18	$15	-$5.34	29% 293-715 (1008)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$8.6	$8.85	+$0.25	41% 273-401 (674)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$7.68	$7.6	-$0.08	71% 939-382 (1321)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 47.6¢	$6.66	$7.35	+$0.69	42% 783-1092 (1875)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.55	-$0.05	24% 779-2522 (3301)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$3.05	$3.02	-$0.03	28% 3288-8374 (11662)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Invested

$261.12

Value

$186.36

PnL

-$74.76

Record

54%

1125-972 (2097)

hello.67CTR

Invested

$105.33

Value

$74.71

PnL

-$30.63

Record

53%

2343-2099 (4442)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$50.67

Value

$34.7

PnL

-$11.26

Record

14%

101-606 (707)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.18

Value

$31.29

PnL

+$1.11

Record

53%

7447-6561 (14008)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$74.18

Value

$15

PnL

-$5.34

Record

29%

293-715 (1008)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$0.25

Record

41%

273-401 (674)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$7.68

Value

$7.6

PnL

-$0.08

Record

71%

939-382 (1321)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.66

Value

$7.35

PnL

+$0.69

Record

42%

783-1092 (1875)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

24%

779-2522 (3301)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.02

PnL

-$0.03

Record

28%

3288-8374 (11662)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.6%

14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$539.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

639.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.