Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on November 14?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 93¢ · $132 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$132.12
-$12.24
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 62%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $29.05 | $27.45 | -$1.6 | 30% 187-428 (615) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $29.13 | $27.45 | -$1.68 | 27% 197-540 (737) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.2¢ | $34.27 | $23.73 | -$10.54 | 58% 2224-1622 (3846) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $22.49 | $12.28 | -$0.55 | 53% 1326-1186 (2512) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $10.71 | $11.5 | +$0.79 | 38% 543-874 (1417) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $11.6 | $11.1 | -$0.5 | 53% 6618-5816 (12434) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $9.6 | $9.15 | -$0.45 | 99% 1015-11 (1026) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $5.87 | $8.16 | +$2.29 | 65% 4251-2269 (6520) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $1.3 | $1.3 | +$0 | 73% 778-291 (1069) |
Invested
$29.05
Value
$27.45
PnL
-$1.6
Record
30%
187-428 (615)
Invested
$29.13
Value
$27.45
PnL
-$1.68
Record
27%
197-540 (737)
Invested
$34.27
Value
$23.73
PnL
-$10.54
Record
58%
2224-1622 (3846)
Invested
$22.49
Value
$12.28
PnL
-$0.55
Record
53%
1326-1186 (2512)
Invested
$10.71
Value
$11.5
PnL
+$0.79
Record
38%
543-874 (1417)
Invested
$11.6
Value
$11.1
PnL
-$0.5
Record
53%
6618-5816 (12434)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.15
PnL
-$0.45
Record
99%
1015-11 (1026)
Invested
$5.87
Value
$8.16
PnL
+$2.29
Record
65%
4251-2269 (6520)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$1.3
PnL
+$0
Record
73%
778-291 (1069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.