Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on November 14?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 2.4¢ · $271 held · ends Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$271.26

Combined PnL

$22.02

Smart Money Entry

26.6¢ → 2.4¢

-91% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$193.05

Total Shares754

Combined PnL+$22.4

No6 traders

Total Value$78.21

Total Shares98

Combined PnL-$0.38

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 26.4¢	$105.59	$87.06	-$18.53	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.2¢	$92.37	$64.62	+$12.31	40% 650-980 (1630)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 17.2¢	$158.91	$28.02	+$31.47	55% 1212-992 (2204)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$26.13	$27.73	+$1.6	51% 804-766 (1570)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$20.62	$19.37	-$1.24	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 81.4¢	$15.01	$15.23	+$0.22	49% 785-823 (1608)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$10.22	$9.18	-$1.03	51% 719-703 (1422)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.6¢	$19.88	$6.96	+$1.52	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.3¢	$10.31	$5.3	-$5.01	72% 853-335 (1188)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 85¢	$4.41	$4.29	-$0.12	49% 753-797 (1550)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 55.4¢	$2.22	$2.41	+$0.2	51% 769-727 (1496)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$1.09	+$0.63	27% 688-1902 (2590)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$105.59

Value

$87.06

PnL

-$18.53

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.37

Value

$64.62

PnL

+$12.31

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$158.91

Value

$28.02

PnL

+$31.47

Record

55%

1212-992 (2204)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$26.13

Value

$27.73

PnL

+$1.6

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$20.62

Value

$19.37

PnL

-$1.24

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$15.01

Value

$15.23

PnL

+$0.22

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.22

Value

$9.18

PnL

-$1.03

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.88

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$1.52

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.31

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$5.01

Record

72%

853-335 (1188)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.41

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$0.12

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.41

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.63

Record

27%

688-1902 (2590)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.5%

2.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2747.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

2847.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.