Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on November 14?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 54¢ · $377 held · ends Nov 14

Yes54¢No46¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$376.65

Combined PnL

$27.09

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 53.8¢

+28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$182.11

Total Shares298

Combined PnL+$13.82

Yes4 traders

Total Value$194.53

Total Shares433

Combined PnL+$13.27

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Noavg 57¢	$113.39	$121.99	+$8.6	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 41.4¢	$113.71	$105.69	-$8.02	55% 1208-982 (2190)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 40.8¢	$78.88	$61.98	+$14.5	31% 146-327 (473)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 56.1¢	$33.69	$36.78	+$3.09	28% 1014-2623 (3637)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$52.94	$26.29	-$0.65	40% 625-948 (1573)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 55.3¢	$17.76	$19.7	+$1.94	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$2.1	$2.19	+$0.09	49% 736-769 (1505)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 56.9¢	$1.35	$1.45	+$0.1	72% 829-328 (1157)
Lucerys<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.31	$0.57	+$7.43	36% 3731-6727 (10458)

hello.67CTR

Invested

$113.39

Value

$121.99

PnL

+$8.6

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$113.71

Value

$105.69

PnL

-$8.02

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.88

Value

$61.98

PnL

+$14.5

Record

31%

146-327 (473)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$33.69

Value

$36.78

PnL

+$3.09

Record

28%

1014-2623 (3637)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.94

Value

$26.29

PnL

-$0.65

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$17.76

Value

$19.7

PnL

+$1.94

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.09

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

Lucerys<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.31

Value

$0.57

PnL

+$7.43

Record

36%

3731-6727 (10458)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.0%

53.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$78.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

178.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.