Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on November 13?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 33¢ · $439 held · ends Nov 13

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$439.08

Combined PnL

$6.81

Smart Money Entry

32¢ → 33¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$191.42

Total Shares573

Combined PnL+$7.8

No5 traders

Total Value$246.98

Total Shares364

Combined PnL-$0.99

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 30.6¢	$113.59	$126.23	+$12.65	58% 1038-744 (1782)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 68¢	$99.13	$98.4	-$0.73	29% 892-2183 (3075)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$85.25	$85	-$0.25	17% 93-449 (542)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 68¢	$51	$51	+$0	26% 118-337 (455)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.8¢	$35.98	$32.92	-$2.92	35% 414-754 (1168)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.4¢	$33.59	$31.73	-$1.86	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 69¢	$6.92	$6.82	-$0.1	26% 871-2505 (3376)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 67¢	$5.67	$5.76	+$0.09	76% 675-216 (891)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$6.54	$0.54	-$0.06	53% 925-815 (1740)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$113.59

Value

$126.23

PnL

+$12.65

Record

58%

1038-744 (1782)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$99.13

Value

$98.4

PnL

-$0.73

Record

29%

892-2183 (3075)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$85.25

Value

$85

PnL

-$0.25

Record

17%

93-449 (542)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$51

Value

$51

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

118-337 (455)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.98

Value

$32.92

PnL

-$2.92

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.59

Value

$31.73

PnL

-$1.86

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$6.92

Value

$6.82

PnL

-$0.1

Record

26%

871-2505 (3376)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.76

PnL

+$0.09

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.54

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.