Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on November 12?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $80 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$80.23

Combined PnL

-$43.81

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$79.96

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.27

Total Shares545

Combined PnL-$43.87

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.9	$79.96	+$0.06	99% 398-3 (401)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$19.8	$0.14	-$19.66	27% 943-2516 (3459)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.6	$0.04	-$8.01	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.27	$0.04	-$7.23	51% 4781-4575 (9356)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.15	$0.02	-$3.13	45% 1109-1383 (2492)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.33	$0.01	-$2.31	40% 1374-2022 (3396)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.01	-$1.81	28% 525-1353 (1878)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	32% 2924-6249 (9173)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.82	$0	-$0.81	68% 2115-1000 (3115)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$79.9

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.06

Record

99%

398-3 (401)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.8

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$19.66

Record

27%

943-2516 (3459)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.6

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$8.01

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.27

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$7.23

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.15

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.13

Record

45%

1109-1383 (2492)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.33

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.31

Record

40%

1374-2022 (3396)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.81

Record

28%

525-1353 (1878)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

PnL

-$0.81

Record

68%

2115-1000 (3115)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.