Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $145 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$144.53
$0.47
97.9¢ → 98.3¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 44%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $33.63 | $33.72 | +$0.09 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $29.37 | $29.49 | +$0.12 | 26% 898-2508 (3406) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $29.44 | $29.49 | +$0.05 | 40% 1412-2154 (3566) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $19.56 | $19.62 | +$0.06 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $12.54 | $12.58 | +$0.04 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $9.78 | $9.81 | +$0.03 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $9.74 | $9.81 | +$0.08 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$33.63
Value
$33.72
PnL
+$0.09
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$29.37
Value
$29.49
PnL
+$0.12
Record
26%
898-2508 (3406)
Invested
$29.44
Value
$29.49
PnL
+$0.05
Record
40%
1412-2154 (3566)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.56
Value
$19.62
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$12.54
Value
$12.58
PnL
+$0.04
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
Invested
$9.78
Value
$9.81
PnL
+$0.03
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$9.74
Value
$9.81
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.