Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on November 12?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 92¢ · $208 held · ends Nov 12

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$208.29

Combined PnL

-$1.57

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 92¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$204.34

Total Shares233

Combined PnL-$1.52

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.94

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.05

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 92¢	$69	$69	+$0	26% 860-2483 (3343)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 87¢	$40.13	$39.21	-$0.92	68% 2063-953 (3016)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 88.6¢	$31	$29.75	-$1.25	27% 104-283 (387)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$29.46	$29.61	+$0.15	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$22.5	$23.17	+$0.66	39% 1297-2005 (3302)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 86¢	$13.76	$13.6	-$0.16	31% 285-621 (906)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$3.2	$3	-$0.2	12% 21-154 (175)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.8	$0.94	+$0.15	54% 553-471 (1024)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$69

Value

$69

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$40.13

Value

$39.21

PnL

-$0.92

Record

68%

2063-953 (3016)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$31

Value

$29.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$29.46

Value

$29.61

PnL

+$0.15

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$22.5

Value

$23.17

PnL

+$0.66

Record

39%

1297-2005 (3302)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$13.76

Value

$13.6

PnL

-$0.16

Record

31%

285-621 (906)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

12%

21-154 (175)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

553-471 (1024)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.