Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 55¢ · $88 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$88.48
$11.16
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 39%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $16.29 | $18.89 | +$2.6 | 44% 1079-1378 (2457) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $14.1 | $16.35 | +$2.25 | 28% 840-2134 (2974) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $14.1 | $16.35 | +$2.25 | 8% 29-324 (353) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $9.42 | $10.93 | +$1.5 | 27% 499-1343 (1842) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $8.27 | $9.59 | +$1.32 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 45.6¢ | $9.12 | $9.4 | +$0.28 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $6.02 | $6.98 | +$0.96 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
Invested
$16.29
Value
$18.89
PnL
+$2.6
Record
44%
1079-1378 (2457)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$16.35
PnL
+$2.25
Record
28%
840-2134 (2974)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$16.35
PnL
+$2.25
Record
8%
29-324 (353)
Invested
$9.42
Value
$10.93
PnL
+$1.5
Record
27%
499-1343 (1842)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$8.27
Value
$9.59
PnL
+$1.32
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
balthazar<$100Invested
$9.12
Value
$9.4
PnL
+$0.28
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$6.02
Value
$6.98
PnL
+$0.96
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.