Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 2 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on November 12?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 39¢ · $312 held · ends Nov 12

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$311.89

Combined PnL

$29.61

Smart Money Entry

28.2¢ → 39¢

+38% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$185.03

Total Shares480

Combined PnL+$49.58

No8 traders

Total Value$126.86

Total Shares204

Combined PnL-$19.98

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$128.45	$177.13	+$48.68	59% 1019-705 (1724)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 71¢	$42.6	$36.3	-$6.3	7% 26-370 (396)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$27.1	$22.75	-$4.35	36% 3004-5342 (8346)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 72¢	$24.96	$20.97	-$3.99	44% 1079-1378 (2457)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 71¢	$14.2	$14.4	+$0.2	50% 4547-4458 (9005)
KL klli27<$100	Noavg 72¢	$14.44	$12.13	-$2.31	27% 499-1343 (1842)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$7	$7.9	+$0.9	15% 15-83 (98)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 70¢	$8.96	$7.74	-$1.22	38% 1223-1986 (3209)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.3	$7.2	-$0.1	29% 2516-6167 (8683)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$13.04	$5.37	-$1.92	53% 325-288 (613)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$128.45

Value

$177.13

PnL

+$48.68

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$42.6

Value

$36.3

PnL

-$6.3

Record

26-370 (396)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$27.1

Value

$22.75

PnL

-$4.35

Record

36%

3004-5342 (8346)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$24.96

Value

$20.97

PnL

-$3.99

Record

44%

1079-1378 (2457)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$14.2

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

4547-4458 (9005)

klli27<$100

Invested

$14.44

Value

$12.13

PnL

-$2.31

Record

27%

499-1343 (1842)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$0.9

Record

15%

15-83 (98)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$8.96

Value

$7.74

PnL

-$1.22

Record

38%

1223-1986 (3209)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$7.2

PnL

-$0.1

Record

29%

2516-6167 (8683)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$13.04

Value

$5.37

PnL

-$1.92

Record

53%

325-288 (613)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.