Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $115 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$114.93
$0.21
98.1¢ → 97¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $36.91 | $36.45 | -$0.45 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $29.4 | $29.09 | -$0.31 | 17% 54-273 (327) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $29.55 | $29.09 | -$0.46 | 26% 898-2508 (3406) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $12.54 | $12.41 | -$0.13 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $4.9 | +$0.05 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $1.48 | $3 | +$1.53 | 15% 15-83 (98) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$36.91
Value
$36.45
PnL
-$0.45
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$29.09
PnL
-$0.31
Record
17%
54-273 (327)
Invested
$29.55
Value
$29.09
PnL
-$0.46
Record
26%
898-2508 (3406)
Invested
$12.54
Value
$12.41
PnL
-$0.13
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.48
Value
$3
PnL
+$1.53
Record
15%
15-83 (98)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.