Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on November 12?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $171 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$170.97
-$0.34
99.8¢ → 99.6¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 42%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $37.54 | $37.43 | -$0.11 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $33.9 | $33.85 | -$0.05 | 44% 1079-1378 (2457) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.87 | -$0.04 | 8% 29-324 (353) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.87 | -$0.1 | 28% 840-2134 (2974) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $20.01 | $19.96 | -$0.05 | 27% 499-1343 (1842) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.98 | $9.99 | +$0.01 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $9.98 | $9.99 | +$0.01 | 99% 137-1 (138) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.02 | $0.02 | +$0 | 15% 15-83 (98) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$37.54
Value
$37.43
PnL
-$0.11
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$33.9
Value
$33.85
PnL
-$0.05
Record
44%
1079-1378 (2457)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.87
PnL
-$0.04
Record
8%
29-324 (353)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.87
PnL
-$0.1
Record
28%
840-2134 (2974)
Invested
$20.01
Value
$19.96
PnL
-$0.05
Record
27%
499-1343 (1842)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
99%
137-1 (138)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0
Record
15%
15-83 (98)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.