Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on November 12?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $52 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$52.35
-$41.11
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $49.95 | $49.75 | -$0.2 | 99% 398-3 (401) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.1¢ | $20.09 | $1.41 | -$18.68 | 27% 943-2516 (3459) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $7.27 | $0.4 | -$6.87 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $26.22 | $0.34 | -$7.7 | 39% 3421-5409 (8830) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.15 | $0.17 | -$2.98 | 45% 1109-1383 (2492) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.33 | $0.13 | -$2.2 | 40% 1374-2022 (3396) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.82 | $0.1 | -$1.72 | 28% 525-1353 (1878) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.82 | $0.05 | -$0.77 | 68% 2115-1000 (3115) |
Invested
$49.95
Value
$49.75
PnL
-$0.2
Record
99%
398-3 (401)
Invested
$20.09
Value
$1.41
PnL
-$18.68
Record
27%
943-2516 (3459)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$7.27
Value
$0.4
PnL
-$6.87
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$26.22
Value
$0.34
PnL
-$7.7
Record
39%
3421-5409 (8830)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$2.98
Record
45%
1109-1383 (2492)
Invested
$2.33
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$2.2
Record
40%
1374-2022 (3396)
Invested
$1.82
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$1.72
Record
28%
525-1353 (1878)
Invested
$0.82
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.77
Record
68%
2115-1000 (3115)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.