Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $137 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$137.33
$0.08
97.8¢ → 97.4¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $80.1 | $79.69 | -$0.41 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $32.13 | $31.87 | -$0.26 | 52% 5322-4827 (10149) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $10.49 | $11.25 | +$0.76 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $10.18 | $10.17 | -$0.01 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $4.36 | $4.36 | -$0 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$80.1
Value
$79.69
PnL
-$0.41
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$32.13
Value
$31.87
PnL
-$0.26
Record
52%
5322-4827 (10149)
Invested
$10.49
Value
$11.25
PnL
+$0.76
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Invested
$10.18
Value
$10.17
PnL
-$0.01
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.36
Value
$4.36
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.