Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 85¢ · $83 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$83.31
$1.73
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $24.55 | $24.55 | +$0 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $22.8 | $22.8 | +$0 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $15.92 | $16.28 | +$0.36 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $10.81 | $11.49 | +$0.68 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $7.5 | $8.18 | +$0.68 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$24.55
Value
$24.55
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$22.8
Value
$22.8
PnL
+$0
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Invested
$15.92
Value
$16.28
PnL
+$0.36
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$10.81
Value
$11.49
PnL
+$0.68
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$7.5
Value
$8.18
PnL
+$0.68
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.