Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 37¢ · $155 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$154.56
-$0.47
37.4¢ → 37¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.1¢ | $57.54 | $60.69 | +$3.15 | 36% 3004-5342 (8346) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 56.9¢ | $35.12 | $36.77 | +$1.65 | 84% 481-91 (572) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $18.36 | $18.87 | +$0.51 | 28% 209-544 (753) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.2¢ | $22.19 | $18.51 | -$3.68 | 50% 4547-4458 (9005) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 41.8¢ | $13.6 | $11.72 | -$1.88 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $8.22 | $8 | -$0.22 | 27% 499-1343 (1842) |
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$57.54
Value
$60.69
PnL
+$3.15
Record
36%
3004-5342 (8346)
Invested
$35.12
Value
$36.77
PnL
+$1.65
Record
84%
481-91 (572)
Invested
$18.36
Value
$18.87
PnL
+$0.51
Record
28%
209-544 (753)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$22.19
Value
$18.51
PnL
-$3.68
Record
50%
4547-4458 (9005)
Invested
$13.6
Value
$11.72
PnL
-$1.88
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$8.22
Value
$8
PnL
-$0.22
Record
27%
499-1343 (1842)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.