Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on November 11?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 77¢ · $174 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$174.42
$13.77
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.2¢ | $69.58 | $81.05 | +$11.46 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 77.2¢ | $38.6 | $38 | -$0.6 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.2¢ | $19.74 | $23.76 | +$4.02 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $10.97 | $10.68 | -$0.29 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $9.91 | $9.54 | -$0.38 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $7.2 | $6.92 | -$0.27 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $4.65 | $4.47 | -$0.18 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
Invested
$69.58
Value
$81.05
PnL
+$11.46
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
balthazar<$100Invested
$38.6
Value
$38
PnL
-$0.6
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$19.74
Value
$23.76
PnL
+$4.02
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$10.97
Value
$10.68
PnL
-$0.29
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$9.91
Value
$9.54
PnL
-$0.38
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$6.92
PnL
-$0.27
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$4.47
PnL
-$0.18
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.